Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) is a leading provider of credit enhancement solutions, specializing in municipal finance, infrastructure projects, and structured financial products globally. Headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda, the company offers innovative insurance and guarantee products that help facilitate access to capital markets while ensuring the credit quality of underlying investments. With a robust risk management framework and a strong balance sheet, Assured Guaranty is well-positioned to support both public and private sector entities, enhancing financial stability and fostering economic growth across diverse markets.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.21% per annum.
- AGO price at the close of December 4, 2025 was $88.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.08 (4.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 156.25% per annum.
- AGO price at the close of December 4, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AGO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: November 6, 2025
a = 4.9208
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0280
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0280) – 1
= 11.83%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y985)
= Exp(a + b × X985 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9208 + -0.0003 × 1,430 + 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.5549)
= $95.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y985)
= Exp(a + b × X985 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9208 + -0.0003 × 1,430 – 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.4431)
= $85.03
November 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9208 + -0.0003 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.4472)
= $85.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9208 + -0.0003 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.3354)
= $76.35
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.21% per annum.
- AGO price at the close of December 4, 2025 was $88.77 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.08 (4.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 10, 2025
End date: December 4, 2025
a = -0.1914
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0191
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 156.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0191) – 1
= 7.94%
October 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1914 + 0.0026 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0191)
= Exp(4.4047)
= $81.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1914 + 0.0026 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0191)
= Exp(4.3283)
= $75.81
December 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1914 + 0.0026 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0191)
= Exp(4.5465)
= $94.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1914 + 0.0026 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0191)
= Exp(4.4701)
= $87.36
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 156.25% per annum.
- AGO price at the close of December 4, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.