Stock Price Trends

United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS)

operating through a network of independent agents, we provide insurance protection to individuals, businesses and organizations. our complete line of products includes commercial insurance, personal insurance, life insurance and surety bonds. we are licensed as a property and casualty insurer in 43 states, plus the district of columbia, and as a life insurer in 28 states. our subsidiary, united life insurance company, is licensed in 36 states, represented by more than 900 independent life insurance agencies and rated "a-" (excellent) by a.m. best company. our products are marketed principally through our home office in cedar rapids, iowa, and four regional locations: the denver regional office in westminster, colorado; the gulf coast regional office in galveston, texas; the east coast regional office in pennington, new jersey; and the west coast regional office in rocklin, california. other offices are maintained in new orleans, louisiana, and lock haven, pennsylvania.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

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Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.58% per annum.
  • UFCS price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $23.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.28 (11.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.16% per annum.
  • UFCS price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UFCS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

May 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

January 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.58% per annum.
  • UFCS price at the close of March 1, 2024 was $23.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.28 (11.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date:
End date:

a =

b =

s =

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=

August 9, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

March 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 35.16% per annum.
  • UFCS price at the close of March 1, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.