United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)
United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS) is a leading provider of property and casualty insurance solutions, catering to both individual and commercial clients across the United States. Headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, the company has established a solid reputation for its commitment to customer service and risk management expertise. With a diversified portfolio of insurance products, United Fire Group aims to deliver innovative solutions that meet the evolving needs of its policyholders while maintaining financial stability and growth. The company's strategic focus on claims management and community engagement underscores its dedication to providing value to its stakeholders.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.79% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of January 27, 2026 was $34.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.96% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of January 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UFCS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 8, 2023
End date: January 27, 2026
a = 2.1781
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0893
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0893) – 1
= 42.95%
August 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y635)
= Exp(a + b × X635 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 922 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1781 + 0.0007 × 922 + 2 × 0.0893)
= Exp(3.0349)
= $20.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y635)
= Exp(a + b × X635 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 922 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1781 + 0.0007 × 922 – 2 × 0.0893)
= Exp(2.6775)
= $14.55
January 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1781 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0893)
= Exp(3.6990)
= $40.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1781 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0893)
= Exp(3.3416)
= $28.27
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.79% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of January 27, 2026 was $34.81 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 17, 2025
End date: January 27, 2026
a = 6.6250
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0080
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -45.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0080) – 1
= 3.26%
December 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6250 + -0.0017 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.0080)
= Exp(3.6328)
= $37.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6250 + -0.0017 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.0080)
= Exp(3.6007)
= $36.62
January 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6250 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0080)
= Exp(3.5636)
= $35.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6250 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0080)
= Exp(3.5316)
= $34.18
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.96% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of January 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.