United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)
United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS) is a leading provider of property and casualty insurance solutions, catering to both individual and commercial clients across the United States. Headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, the company has established a solid reputation for its commitment to customer service and risk management expertise. With a diversified portfolio of insurance products, United Fire Group aims to deliver innovative solutions that meet the evolving needs of its policyholders while maintaining financial stability and growth. The company's strategic focus on claims management and community engagement underscores its dedication to providing value to its stakeholders.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.07% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of March 12, 2026 was $36.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 65.30% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of March 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UFCS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 8, 2023
End date: March 12, 2026
a = 2.1751
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0893
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0893) – 1
= 42.96%
August 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y604)
= Exp(a + b × X604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 876 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1751 + 0.0008 × 876 + 2 × 0.0893)
= Exp(3.0214)
= $20.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y604)
= Exp(a + b × X604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 876 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1751 + 0.0008 × 876 – 2 × 0.0893)
= Exp(2.6640)
= $14.35
March 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1751 + 0.0008 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0893)
= Exp(3.7431)
= $42.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1751 + 0.0008 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0893)
= Exp(3.3858)
= $29.54
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 32.07% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of March 12, 2026 was $36.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 4, 2025
End date: March 12, 2026
a = 1.1562
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0468
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 65.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0468) – 1
= 20.57%
June 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,542 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1562 + 0.0014 × 1,542 + 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(3.3729)
= $29.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,061)
= Exp(a + b × X1,061 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,542 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1562 + 0.0014 × 1,542 – 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(3.1859)
= $24.19
March 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1562 + 0.0014 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(3.7599)
= $42.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1562 + 0.0014 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0468)
= Exp(3.5728)
= $35.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 65.30% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of March 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.