United Fire Group Inc (UFCS)
United Fire Group, Inc., offers property and casualty insurance for individuals and businesses in the United States. The company is headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.08% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $21.96 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.29 (1.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.46% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UFCS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2023
End date: June 3, 2024
a = 1.9380
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0369
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0369) – 1
= 15.92%
August 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9380 + 0.0007 × 1,470 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(3.0086)
= $20.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,013)
= Exp(a + b × X1,013 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9380 + 0.0007 × 1,470 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(2.8609)
= $17.48
June 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9380 + 0.0007 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(3.2148)
= $24.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9380 + 0.0007 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(3.0670)
= $21.48
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.08% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $21.96 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.29 (1.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.5641
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0357
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0357) – 1
= 15.34%
January 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5641 + -0.0003 × 1,641 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(3.1884)
= $24.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5641 + -0.0003 × 1,641 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(3.0457)
= $21.02
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5641 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(3.1380)
= $23.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5641 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(2.9953)
= $19.99
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.46% per annum.
- UFCS price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.