The Allstate Corporation (ALL)
The Allstate Corporation is an American insurance company, headquartered in Northfield Township, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.37% per annum.
- ALL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $169.17 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.93 (6.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.53% per annum.
- ALL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 25, 2023
End date: May 21, 2024
a = 2.1867
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0494
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 86.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0494) – 1
= 21.84%
May 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1867 + 0.0017 × 1,396 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(4.6665)
= $106.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1867 + 0.0017 × 1,396 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(4.4690)
= $87.27
May 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1867 + 0.0017 × 1,758 + 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(5.2840)
= $197.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,758 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1867 + 0.0017 × 1,758 – 2 × 0.0494)
= Exp(5.0865)
= $161.82
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.37% per annum.
- ALL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $169.17 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.93 (6.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 19, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.5354
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0315
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0315) – 1
= 13.44%
January 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5354 + 0.0003 × 1,635 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(5.1271)
= $168.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,635 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5354 + 0.0003 × 1,635 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(5.0010)
= $148.56
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5354 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(5.1882)
= $179.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5354 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0315)
= Exp(5.0621)
= $157.92
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.53% per annum.
- ALL price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.