Stock Price Trends

Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)

Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) is a diversified insurance provider primarily engaged in offering property and casualty insurance through its subsidiaries, including The Cincinnati Insurance Company, The Cincinnati Indemnity Company, and The Cincinnati Casualty Company. With a strong emphasis on customer satisfaction and a long-standing reputation for financial stability, the company has developed a robust portfolio catering to individual and commercial markets. Cincinnati Financial's disciplined underwriting practices and consistent investment strategy position it well for sustained growth in an evolving insurance landscape, making it an attractive consideration for institutional investors seeking stable long-term returns.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.70% per annum.
  • CINF price at the close of October 21, 2025 was $156.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.81% per annum.
  • CINF price at the close of October 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CINF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 23, 2023
End date: October 21, 2025

a = 3.9047

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0507

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.70%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0507) – 1
= 22.50%

May 23, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y649)
= Exp(a + b × X649 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 943 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9047 + 0.0006 × 943 + 2 × 0.0507)
= Exp(4.6175)
= $101.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y649)
= Exp(a + b × X649 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 943 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9047 + 0.0006 × 943 – 2 × 0.0507)
= Exp(4.4146)
= $82.65

October 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9047 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0507)
= Exp(5.1893)
= $179.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9047 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0507)
= Exp(4.9864)
= $146.40

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.70% per annum.
  • CINF price at the close of October 21, 2025 was $156.29 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: October 21, 2025

a = 4.4305

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0435

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0435) – 1
= 19.03%

August 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4305 + 0.0003 × 1,401 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.9803)
= $145.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4305 + 0.0003 × 1,401 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.8061)
= $122.25

October 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4305 + 0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(5.1203)
= $167.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4305 + 0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.9461)
= $140.62

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.81% per annum.
  • CINF price at the close of October 21, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.