Stock Price Trends

Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)

Cincinnati Financial Corporation offers property and casualty insurance, its main business, through The Cincinnati Insurance Company, The Cincinnati Indemnity Company and The Cincinnati Casualty Company.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.08% per annum.
  • CINF price at the close of July 8, 2025 was $146.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.73% per annum.
  • CINF price at the close of July 8, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CINF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 23, 2023
End date: April 3, 2025

a = 3.7215

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0490

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 31.08%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0490) – 1
= 21.66%

May 23, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y723)
= Exp(a + b × X723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,048 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7215 + 0.0007 × 1,048 + 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(4.5965)
= $99.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y723)
= Exp(a + b × X723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,048 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7215 + 0.0007 × 1,048 – 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(4.4005)
= $81.49

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7215 + 0.0007 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(5.1015)
= $164.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,190)
= Exp(a + b × X1,190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7215 + 0.0007 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0490)
= Exp(4.9054)
= $135.02

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 31.08% per annum.
  • CINF price at the close of July 8, 2025 was $146.09 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 28, 2024
End date: July 8, 2025

a = 4.6499

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0460

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0460) – 1
= 20.18%

August 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,041)
= Exp(a + b × X1,041 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6499 + 0.0002 × 1,511 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(5.0116)
= $150.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,041)
= Exp(a + b × X1,041 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6499 + 0.0002 × 1,511 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.8278)
= $124.93

July 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6499 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(5.0677)
= $158.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6499 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(4.8838)
= $132.14

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.73% per annum.
  • CINF price at the close of July 8, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.