Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF)
Cincinnati Financial Corporation offers property and casualty insurance, its main business, through The Cincinnati Insurance Company, The Cincinnati Indemnity Company and The Cincinnati Casualty Company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.90% per annum.
- CINF price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $123.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.99 (11.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.04% per annum.
- CINF price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CINF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 29, 2021
End date: January 18, 2024
a = 4.8188
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0708
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0708) – 1
= 32.72%
April 29, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y442)
= Exp(a + b × X442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8188 + -0.0001 × 640 + 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(4.8723)
= $130.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y442)
= Exp(a + b × X442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8188 + -0.0001 × 640 – 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(4.5892)
= $98.41
January 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,634 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8188 + -0.0001 × 1,634 + 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(4.7354)
= $113.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,634 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8188 + -0.0001 × 1,634 – 2 × 0.0708)
= Exp(4.4523)
= $85.83
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.90% per annum.
- CINF price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $123.96 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.99 (11.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.7564
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0373
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0373) – 1
= 16.11%
May 23, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7564 + 0.0006 × 1,394 + 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(4.6231)
= $101.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7564 + 0.0006 × 1,394 – 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(4.4737)
= $87.68
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7564 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(4.8674)
= $129.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7564 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0373)
= Exp(4.7180)
= $111.94
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.04% per annum.
- CINF price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.