Progressive Corp (PGR)
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is a leading American insurance provider, renowned for being one of the largest car insurance companies in the United States. In addition to its extensive auto insurance offerings, Progressive also insures motorcycles, boats, recreational vehicles, and commercial vehicles, while providing home insurance through strategic partnerships. With a strong focus on innovation and customer service, Progressive utilizes advanced technology and data analytics to enhance underwriting and claim processes, ensuring a competitive edge in the dynamic insurance landscape. The company's diverse portfolio and commitment to comprehensive risk management position it well for sustained growth and market leadership.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.50% per annum.
- PGR price at the close of December 9, 2025 was $226.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 142.75% per annum.
- PGR price at the close of December 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PGR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 25, 2025
End date: December 9, 2025
a = 7.1422
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0378
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0378) – 1
= 16.31%
February 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,538 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1422 + -0.0010 × 1,538 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(5.7450)
= $312.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,538 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1422 + -0.0010 × 1,538 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(5.5938)
= $268.76
December 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1422 + -0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(5.4701)
= $237.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1422 + -0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0378)
= Exp(5.3190)
= $204.18
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.50% per annum.
- PGR price at the close of December 9, 2025 was $226.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 28, 2025
End date: December 9, 2025
a = 1.0127
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0208
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 142.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0208) – 1
= 8.67%
October 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0127 + 0.0024 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(5.3865)
= $218.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0127 + 0.0024 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(5.3033)
= $201.01
December 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0127 + 0.0024 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(5.4885)
= $241.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0127 + 0.0024 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(5.4054)
= $222.60
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 142.75% per annum.
- PGR price at the close of December 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.