Progressive Corp (PGR)
The Progressive Corporation is an American insurance company, one of the largest providers of car insurance in the United States. The company insures motorcycles, boats, RVs, and commercial vehicles and provides home insurance through select companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 68.50% per annum.
- PGR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $276.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.74 (7.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.67% per annum.
- PGR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PGR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: December 5, 2024
a = 3.1881
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0498
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 68.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0498) – 1
= 22.04%
May 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y756)
= Exp(a + b × X756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,097 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1881 + 0.0014 × 1,097 + 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(4.8558)
= $128.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y756)
= Exp(a + b × X756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,097 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1881 + 0.0014 × 1,097 – 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(4.6566)
= $105.28
December 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1881 + 0.0014 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(5.6892)
= $295.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1881 + 0.0014 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0498)
= Exp(5.4900)
= $242.25
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 68.50% per annum.
- PGR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $276.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.74 (7.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 14, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 4.0384
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0449
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0449) – 1
= 19.65%
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,385 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0384 + 0.0009 × 1,385 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.3412)
= $208.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y954)
= Exp(a + b × X954 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,385 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0384 + 0.0009 × 1,385 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.1618)
= $174.49
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0384 + 0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.7266)
= $306.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0384 + 0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.5472)
= $256.53
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.67% per annum.
- PGR price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.