Selective Insurance Group Inc (SIGI)
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is a leading provider of property and casualty insurance products, primarily serving the United States market. Headquartered in Branchville, New Jersey, the company specializes in offering tailored insurance solutions for personal and commercial clients, reflecting a strong focus on customer service and risk management. With a well-established regional presence and a robust financial foundation, Selective Insurance Group is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities in the dynamic insurance industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.07% per annum.
- SIGI price at the close of November 5, 2025 was $77.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.98% per annum.
- SIGI price at the close of November 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SIGI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 20, 2023
End date: November 5, 2025
a = 4.9229
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0461
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0461) – 1
= 20.25%
July 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y677)
= Exp(a + b × X677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 986 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9229 + -0.0003 × 986 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(4.7282)
= $113.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y677)
= Exp(a + b × X677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 986 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9229 + -0.0003 × 986 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(4.5439)
= $94.05
November 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9229 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(4.4842)
= $88.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9229 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(4.2998)
= $73.69
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.07% per annum.
- SIGI price at the close of November 5, 2025 was $77.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: November 5, 2025
a = 5.3437
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0443
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0443) – 1
= 19.37%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,461 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3437 + -0.0005 × 1,461 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.6388)
= $103.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,005)
= Exp(a + b × X1,005 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,461 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3437 + -0.0005 × 1,461 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.4617)
= $86.64
November 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3437 + -0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.4411)
= $84.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3437 + -0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.2641)
= $71.10
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.98% per annum.
- SIGI price at the close of November 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.