AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)
AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) is a specialized insurance holding company focused primarily on providing workers' compensation insurance across the United States, catering to high-hazard industries such as logging, construction, and trucking. Based in DeRidder, Louisiana, AMERISAFE leverages its extensive expertise in underwriting and risk management to deliver tailored coverage solutions, driving profitability and maintaining a disciplined approach to loss prevention. With a commitment to safety and customer service, the company stands out in the niche insurance market, positioning itself as a reliable partner for businesses operating in hazardous environments.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.22% per annum.
- AMSF price at the close of February 27, 2026 was $32.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.33 (6.69%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.80% per annum.
- AMSF price at the close of February 27, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.79 (5.21%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMSF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: February 25, 2026
a = 4.8652
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0291
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0291) – 1
= 12.33%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8652 + -0.0007 × 1,346 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.9968)
= $54.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8652 + -0.0007 × 1,346 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.8804)
= $48.45
February 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8652 + -0.0007 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.6691)
= $39.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8652 + -0.0007 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(3.5528)
= $34.91
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 22.22% per annum.
- AMSF price at the close of February 27, 2026 was $32.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $2.33 (6.69%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 11, 2025
End date: February 27, 2026
a = 5.2198
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0283
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0283) – 1
= 12.00%
August 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2198 + -0.0009 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.0283)
= Exp(3.8275)
= $45.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,117)
= Exp(a + b × X1,117 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2198 + -0.0009 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.0283)
= Exp(3.7142)
= $41.02
February 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2198 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0283)
= Exp(3.6490)
= $38.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2198 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0283)
= Exp(3.5357)
= $34.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 27.80% per annum.
- AMSF price at the close of February 27, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.79 (5.21%).