# The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)

Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. offers a variety of property and casualty insurance products and services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Worcester, Massachusetts.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.63% per annum.
• THG price at the close of July 19, 2024 was \$134.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by \$3.76 (2.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.01% per annum.
• THG price at the close of July 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
• The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of THG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: April 6, 2021
End date: January 18, 2024

a = 4.9709

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0693

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.63%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0693) – 1
= 31.94%

#### April 6, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y430)
= Exp(a + b × X430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9709 + -0.0001 × 624 + 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(5.0285)
= \$152.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y430)
= Exp(a + b × X430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9709 + -0.0001 × 624 – 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(4.7514)
= \$115.74

#### January 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9709 + -0.0001 × 1,641 + 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(4.8966)
= \$133.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,131)
= Exp(a + b × X1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9709 + -0.0001 × 1,641 – 2 × 0.0693)
= Exp(4.6194)
= \$101.43

#### Description

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.63% per annum.
• THG price at the close of July 19, 2024 was \$134.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by \$3.76 (2.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: May 24, 2023
End date: May 31, 2024

a = 3.6317

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0362

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.01%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0362) – 1
= 15.59%

#### May 24, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,402 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6317 + 0.0007 × 1,402 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(4.7123)
= \$111.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y968)
= Exp(a + b × X968 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,402 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6317 + 0.0007 × 1,402 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(4.5675)
= \$96.30

#### May 31, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6317 + 0.0007 × 1,775 + 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(4.9806)
= \$145.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,224)
= Exp(a + b × X1,224 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6317 + 0.0007 × 1,775 – 2 × 0.0362)
= Exp(4.8357)
= \$125.93

#### Description

• The secondary trend is increasing.
• The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.01% per annum.
• THG price at the close of July 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.