Stock Price Trends

The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)

Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. offers a variety of property and casualty insurance products and services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Worcester, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.65% per annum.
  • THG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $165.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.13% per annum.
  • THG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of THG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 22, 2023
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 3.7886

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0429

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0429) – 1
= 18.70%

June 22, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7886 + 0.0007 × 1,148 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(4.7153)
= $111.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7886 + 0.0007 × 1,148 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(4.5438)
= $94.05

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7886 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(5.2112)
= $183.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7886 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(5.0397)
= $154.43

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.65% per annum.
  • THG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $165.99 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 28, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025

a = 3.3979

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0435

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0435) – 1
= 18.98%

May 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,489 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3979 + 0.0010 × 1,489 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.9189)
= $136.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,489 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3979 + 0.0010 × 1,489 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(4.7451)
= $115.02

April 29, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3979 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(5.2426)
= $189.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3979 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0435)
= Exp(5.0688)
= $158.98

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.13% per annum.
  • THG price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.