The Hanover Insurance Group Inc (THG)
Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. offers a variety of property and casualty insurance products and services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Worcester, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.40% per annum.
- THG price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $153.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.14% per annum.
- THG price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of THG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 22, 2023
End date: January 24, 2025
a = 3.7326
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0433
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0433) – 1
= 18.91%
June 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7326 + 0.0007 × 1,242 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(4.7224)
= $112.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7326 + 0.0007 × 1,242 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(4.5492)
= $94.56
January 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7326 + 0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(5.1457)
= $171.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7326 + 0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0433)
= Exp(4.9724)
= $144.38
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.40% per annum.
- THG price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $153.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 11, 2024
End date: January 24, 2025
a = 6.7421
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0195
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0195) – 1
= 8.10%
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7421 + -0.0009 × 1,750 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(5.1293)
= $168.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7421 + -0.0009 × 1,750 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(5.0514)
= $156.25
January 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7421 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(5.0595)
= $157.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7421 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(4.9816)
= $145.71
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.14% per annum.
- THG price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.