Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT) is a leading provider of property and casualty insurance, specializing in private passenger and commercial auto insurance as well as homeowners insurance across the United States. Based in Boston, Massachusetts, the company employs a customer-centric approach, focusing on delivering tailored insurance solutions that meet the diverse needs of its clientele. With a robust financial foundation and a commitment to underwriting excellence, Safety Insurance is well-positioned for sustainable growth in a competitive insurance landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.12% per annum.
- SAFT price at the close of December 23, 2025 was $79.29 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.49 (6.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 122.19% per annum.
- SAFT price at the close of December 23, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SAFT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: November 6, 2025
a = 4.7218
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0355
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0355) – 1
= 15.25%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y892)
= Exp(a + b × X892 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7218 + -0.0003 × 1,300 + 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(4.4523)
= $85.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y892)
= Exp(a + b × X892 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7218 + -0.0003 × 1,300 – 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(4.3104)
= $74.47
November 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7218 + -0.0003 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(4.3271)
= $75.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7218 + -0.0003 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0355)
= Exp(4.1852)
= $65.70
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.12% per annum.
- SAFT price at the close of December 23, 2025 was $79.29 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.49 (6.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 6, 2025
End date: December 23, 2025
a = 0.3859
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0244
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 122.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0244) – 1
= 10.26%
October 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3859 + 0.0022 × 1,747 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.2559)
= $70.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3859 + 0.0022 × 1,747 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.1582)
= $63.96
December 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3859 + 0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.4265)
= $83.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3859 + 0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0244)
= Exp(4.3288)
= $75.85
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 122.19% per annum.
- SAFT price at the close of December 23, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.