Safety Insurance Group Inc (SAFT)
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. offers private passenger and commercial auto and homeowners insurance in the United States. The company is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.39% per annum.
- SAFT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $77.83 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.11 (5.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.34% per annum.
- SAFT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SAFT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 12, 2025
a = 6.0825
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0147
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -30.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0147) – 1
= 6.07%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0825 + -0.0010 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(4.4730)
= $87.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0825 + -0.0010 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(4.4141)
= $82.61
March 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0825 + -0.0010 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(4.3479)
= $77.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0825 + -0.0010 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0147)
= Exp(4.2890)
= $72.89
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 30.39% per annum.
- SAFT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $77.83 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.11 (5.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 10, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 4.5113
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0172
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0172) – 1
= 7.11%
January 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5113 + -0.0001 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.3860)
= $80.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5113 + -0.0001 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.3173)
= $74.99
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5113 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.3759)
= $79.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5113 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.3072)
= $74.23
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 3.34% per annum.
- SAFT price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.