Regenxbio Inc (RGNX)
REGENXBIO Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, offers candidate gene therapy products to deliver genes to cells to address genetic defects or to enable cells in the body to produce therapeutic proteins or antibodies intended to affect disease. The company is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.81% per annum.
- RGNX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $16.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 94.73% per annum.
- RGNX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.79 (4.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RGNX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 9, 2020
End date: February 14, 2024
a = 4.2955
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1175
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1175) – 1
= 60.00%
December 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y401)
= Exp(a + b × X401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 580 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2955 + -0.0009 × 580 + 2 × 0.1175)
= Exp(4.0126)
= $55.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y401)
= Exp(a + b × X401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 580 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2955 + -0.0009 × 580 – 2 × 0.1175)
= Exp(3.5427)
= $34.56
February 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2955 + -0.0009 × 1,742 + 2 × 0.1175)
= Exp(2.9752)
= $19.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,200)
= Exp(a + b × X1,200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2955 + -0.0009 × 1,742 – 2 × 0.1175)
= Exp(2.5052)
= $12.25
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.81% per annum.
- RGNX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was $16.67 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 5, 2024
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 17.4091
b = -0.0081
s = 0.0393
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0081) – 1
= -94.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0393) – 1
= 17.01%
March 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.4091 + -0.0081 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(3.2813)
= $26.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.4091 + -0.0081 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(3.1242)
= $22.74
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(17.4091 + -0.0081 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(2.8217)
= $16.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(17.4091 + -0.0081 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(2.6646)
= $14.36
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 94.73% per annum.
- RGNX price at the close of May 8, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.79 (4.95%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.