M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)
M&T Bank Corporation is an American bank holding company headquartered in Buffalo, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.91% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $173.51 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.67 (1.56%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,732.68% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 22, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.4092
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0437
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.91%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0437) – 1
= 19.08%
August 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,488 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4092 + 0.0009 × 1,488 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(4.8364)
= $126.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,025)
= Exp(a + b × X1,025 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,488 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4092 + 0.0009 × 1,488 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(4.6617)
= $105.82
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4092 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.1407)
= $170.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4092 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(4.9661)
= $143.46
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.91% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $173.51 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.67 (1.56%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 5, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -11.5627
b = 0.0092
s = 0.0096
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0092) – 1
= 2,732.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0096) – 1
= 3.92%
July 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.5627 + 0.0092 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.0015)
= $148.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.5627 + 0.0092 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(4.9631)
= $143.03
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.5627 + 0.0092 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.1848)
= $178.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.5627 + 0.0092 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.1463)
= $171.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,732.68% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.