M&T Bank Corporation (MTB)
M&T Bank Corporation is a leading American bank holding company headquartered in Buffalo, New York, with a robust portfolio of financial services catering to individuals, businesses, and municipalities. Established in 1856, M&T Bank has built a strong regional presence, primarily in the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States, with a commitment to personalized customer service and community engagement. The company offers a wide range of banking products, including commercial and retail banking, mortgage services, and wealth management solutions, making it a key player in the regional banking landscape. With a focus on sustainable growth and innovation, M&T Bank is well-positioned to capture new opportunities in the evolving financial sector while delivering value to its shareholders.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.43% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of December 9, 2025 was $197.66 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.85 (8.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.36% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of December 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: March 4, 2025
a = 3.8546
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0717
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0717) – 1
= 33.20%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y565)
= Exp(a + b × X565 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8546 + 0.0009 × 823 + 2 × 0.0717)
= Exp(4.7473)
= $115.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y565)
= Exp(a + b × X565 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8546 + 0.0009 × 823 – 2 × 0.0717)
= Exp(4.4606)
= $86.54
March 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,545 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8546 + 0.0009 × 1,545 + 2 × 0.0717)
= Exp(5.4048)
= $222.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,060)
= Exp(a + b × X1,060 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,545 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8546 + 0.0009 × 1,545 – 2 × 0.0717)
= Exp(5.1181)
= $167.01
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.43% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of December 9, 2025 was $197.66 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.85 (8.28%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 9, 2024
End date: December 9, 2025
a = 5.2392
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0650
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0650) – 1
= 29.71%
October 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2392 + 0.0000 × 1,399 + 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(5.3555)
= $211.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2392 + 0.0000 × 1,399 – 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(5.0953)
= $163.26
December 9, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2392 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(5.3513)
= $210.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2392 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0650)
= Exp(5.0911)
= $162.57
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.36% per annum.
- MTB price at the close of December 9, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.