Triumph Financial Inc (TFIN)
Triumph Financial Inc., a financial and technology company, focuses on payments, factoring, and banking. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 85.74% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $54.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.60 (3.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.71% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TFIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: April 25, 2025
a = 13.6148
b = -0.0053
s = 0.0444
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0053) – 1
= -85.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0444) – 1
= 19.42%
November 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6148 + -0.0053 × 1,667 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.8090)
= $122.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,150)
= Exp(a + b × X1,150 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6148 + -0.0053 × 1,667 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(4.6316)
= $102.68
April 25, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6148 + -0.0053 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(3.9874)
= $53.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.6148 + -0.0053 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0444)
= Exp(3.8099)
= $45.15
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 85.74% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $54.37 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.60 (3.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 2.1593
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0413
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0413) – 1
= 17.96%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1593 + 0.0010 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.9947)
= $54.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1593 + 0.0010 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.8295)
= $46.04
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1593 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(4.0200)
= $55.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1593 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.8549)
= $47.22
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 42.71% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.