Triumph Financial Inc (TFIN)
Triumph Financial Inc., a financial and technology company, focuses on payments, factoring, and banking. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.00% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $91.57 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $23.33 (34.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.19% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TFIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 16, 2021
End date: November 13, 2023
a = 4.9000
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1886
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1886) – 1
= 112.66%
February 16, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y392)
= Exp(a + b × X392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9000 + -0.0006 × 571 + 2 × 0.1886)
= Exp(4.9476)
= $140.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y392)
= Exp(a + b × X392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9000 + -0.0006 × 571 – 2 × 0.1886)
= Exp(4.1931)
= $66.23
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,571 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9000 + -0.0006 × 1,571 + 2 × 0.1886)
= Exp(4.3703)
= $79.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,571 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9000 + -0.0006 × 1,571 – 2 × 0.1886)
= Exp(3.6157)
= $37.18
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.00% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $91.57 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $23.33 (34.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 27, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.1160
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0775
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0775) – 1
= 36.33%
September 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y799)
= Exp(a + b × X799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1160 + 0.0007 × 1,159 + 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(4.0842)
= $59.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y799)
= Exp(a + b × X799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1160 + 0.0007 × 1,159 – 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(3.7743)
= $43.57
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1160 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(4.5522)
= $94.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1160 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(4.2423)
= $69.56
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.19% per annum.
- TFIN price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.