KeyCorp (KEY)
KeyBank, the primary subsidiary of KeyCorp, is a regional bank headquartered in Cleveland.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.26% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $16.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.37% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.56 (3.58%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KEY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: May 24, 2024
a = 0.1248
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0746
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 72.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0746) – 1
= 34.76%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1248 + 0.0015 × 1,369 + 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(2.3137)
= $10.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1248 + 0.0015 × 1,369 – 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(2.0154)
= $7.50
May 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1248 + 0.0015 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(2.9022)
= $18.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,216)
= Exp(a + b × X1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.1248 + 0.0015 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0746)
= Exp(2.6039)
= $13.52
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 72.26% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $16.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: July 11, 2024
a = 2.4099
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0369
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0369) – 1
= 15.89%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4099 + 0.0001 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(2.7132)
= $15.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,104)
= Exp(a + b × X1,104 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4099 + 0.0001 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(2.5658)
= $13.01
July 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4099 + 0.0001 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(2.7435)
= $15.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4099 + 0.0001 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(2.5960)
= $13.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.37% per annum.
- KEY price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.56 (3.58%).