Cathay General Bancorp (CATY)
Cathay General Bancorp is the holding company of Cathay Bank offering various commercial banking products and services to individuals, professionals, and small and medium-sized businesses in the United States. The company is headquartered in Los Angeles, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.62% per annum.
- CATY price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $45.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.41 (3.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.13% per annum.
- CATY price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CATY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2021
End date: July 12, 2024
a = 3.6732
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0943
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0943) – 1
= 45.84%
February 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y395)
= Exp(a + b × X395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6732 + 0.0000 × 574 + 2 × 0.0943)
= Exp(3.8362)
= $46.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y395)
= Exp(a + b × X395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6732 + 0.0000 × 574 – 2 × 0.0943)
= Exp(3.4588)
= $31.78
July 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6732 + 0.0000 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0943)
= Exp(3.7808)
= $43.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6732 + 0.0000 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0943)
= Exp(3.4035)
= $30.07
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.62% per annum.
- CATY price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $45.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.41 (3.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 22, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.7401
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0812
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0812) – 1
= 38.39%
March 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7401 + 0.0005 × 1,332 + 2 × 0.0812)
= Exp(3.6022)
= $36.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7401 + 0.0005 × 1,332 – 2 × 0.0812)
= Exp(3.2773)
= $26.50
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7401 + 0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0812)
= Exp(3.8607)
= $47.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7401 + 0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0812)
= Exp(3.5358)
= $34.32
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.13% per annum.
- CATY price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.