First Bancorp (FBP)
First BanCorp. The company is headquartered in Santurce, Puerto Rico.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.17% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $18.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.34% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FBP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 0.5911
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0519
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 59.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0519) – 1
= 23.06%
March 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5911 + 0.0013 × 1,395 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(2.4714)
= $11.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y962)
= Exp(a + b × X962 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5911 + 0.0013 × 1,395 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(2.2640)
= $9.62
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5911 + 0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(3.0178)
= $20.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5911 + 0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(2.8103)
= $16.61
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 59.17% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $18.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 1, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 1.5880
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0261
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0261) – 1
= 11.02%
December 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,656 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5880 + 0.0007 × 1,656 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(2.8075)
= $16.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,656 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5880 + 0.0007 × 1,656 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(2.7030)
= $14.92
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5880 + 0.0007 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(2.9259)
= $18.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5880 + 0.0007 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0261)
= Exp(2.8214)
= $16.80
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 29.34% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.