First Bancorp (FBP)
First BanCorp. The company is headquartered in Santurce, Puerto Rico.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.45% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $19.85 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.55 (14.73%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 52.23% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.29 (14.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FBP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 2.3534
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0926
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0926) – 1
= 44.81%
February 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y205)
= Exp(a + b × X205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3534 + 0.0002 × 299 + 2 × 0.0926)
= Exp(2.5897)
= $13.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y205)
= Exp(a + b × X205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3534 + 0.0002 × 299 – 2 × 0.0926)
= Exp(2.2195)
= $9.20
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y903)
= Exp(a + b × X903 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3534 + 0.0002 × 1,309 + 2 × 0.0926)
= Exp(2.7625)
= $15.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y903)
= Exp(a + b × X903 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3534 + 0.0002 × 1,309 – 2 × 0.0926)
= Exp(2.3923)
= $10.94
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.45% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $19.85 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.55 (14.73%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 8, 2023
End date: December 9, 2024
a = 1.1509
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0551
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0551) – 1
= 24.66%
March 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,042 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1509 + 0.0012 × 1,042 + 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(2.4607)
= $11.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y718)
= Exp(a + b × X718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,042 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1509 + 0.0012 × 1,042 – 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(2.2403)
= $9.40
December 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1509 + 0.0012 × 1,684 + 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(3.1999)
= $24.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,160)
= Exp(a + b × X1,160 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,684 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1509 + 0.0012 × 1,684 – 2 × 0.0551)
= Exp(2.9794)
= $19.68
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 52.23% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of April 29, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.29 (14.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.