First Bancorp (FBP)
First BanCorp. The company is headquartered in Santurce, Puerto Rico.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.99% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $21.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.03 (0.14%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6,114.55% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FBP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 15, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 0.7489
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0533
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0533) – 1
= 23.78%
March 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7489 + 0.0012 × 1,328 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(2.4733)
= $11.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y915)
= Exp(a + b × X915 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7489 + 0.0012 × 1,328 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(2.2600)
= $9.58
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7489 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(3.0800)
= $21.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.7489 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(2.8667)
= $17.58
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.99% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $21.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.03 (0.14%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 5, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -17.5650
b = 0.0113
s = 0.0194
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0113) – 1
= 6,114.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0194) – 1
= 8.08%
July 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-17.5650 + 0.0113 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(2.9063)
= $18.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-17.5650 + 0.0113 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(2.8286)
= $16.92
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-17.5650 + 0.0113 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(3.1326)
= $22.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-17.5650 + 0.0113 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0194)
= Exp(3.0549)
= $21.22
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6,114.55% per annum.
- FBP price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.