Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP)
Tompkins Financial Corporation, a community-based financial services company, provides consumer and commercial banking, financial leasing, trust and investment management, financial planning and wealth management, and insurance. The company is headquartered in Ithaca, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.66% per annum.
- TMP price at the close of December 26, 2025 was $74.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.16% per annum.
- TMP price at the close of December 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 16, 2023
End date: December 26, 2025
a = 3.2494
b = 0.0006
s = 0.1036
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1036) – 1
= 51.36%
August 16, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y662)
= Exp(a + b × X662 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 961 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2494 + 0.0006 × 961 + 2 × 0.1036)
= Exp(3.9943)
= $54.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y662)
= Exp(a + b × X662 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 961 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2494 + 0.0006 × 961 – 2 × 0.1036)
= Exp(3.5798)
= $35.87
December 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2494 + 0.0006 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.1036)
= Exp(4.4772)
= $87.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2494 + 0.0006 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.1036)
= Exp(4.0627)
= $58.13
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.66% per annum.
- TMP price at the close of December 26, 2025 was $74.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 16, 2025
End date: December 26, 2025
a = -0.8349
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0227
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 181.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0227) – 1
= 9.51%
October 16, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8349 + 0.0028 × 1,753 + 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(4.1754)
= $65.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,753 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8349 + 0.0028 × 1,753 – 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(4.0845)
= $59.41
December 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8349 + 0.0028 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(4.3765)
= $79.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8349 + 0.0028 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(4.2856)
= $72.65
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 181.16% per annum.
- TMP price at the close of December 26, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.