Glacier Bancorp Inc (GBCI)
Glacier Bancorp, Inc. is the bank holding company for Glacier Bank providing commercial banking services to individuals, small and medium-sized businesses, community organizations, and public entities in the United States. The company is headquartered in Kalispell, Montana.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.49% per annum.
- GBCI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $45.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.40 (26.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.00% per annum.
- GBCI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GBCI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2021
End date: December 6, 2023
a = 4.4118
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1268
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1268) – 1
= 66.08%
February 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y396)
= Exp(a + b × X396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4118 + -0.0006 × 577 + 2 × 0.1268)
= Exp(4.3228)
= $75.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y396)
= Exp(a + b × X396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4118 + -0.0006 × 577 – 2 × 0.1268)
= Exp(3.8154)
= $45.40
December 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4118 + -0.0006 × 1,594 + 2 × 0.1268)
= Exp(3.7188)
= $41.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4118 + -0.0006 × 1,594 – 2 × 0.1268)
= Exp(3.2115)
= $24.82
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.49% per annum.
- GBCI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $45.31 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.40 (26.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.2721
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0885
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.00%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0885) – 1
= 42.46%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2721 + 0.0008 × 1,369 + 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(3.5186)
= $33.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2721 + 0.0008 × 1,369 – 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(3.1647)
= $23.68
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2721 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(3.8756)
= $48.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2721 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0885)
= Exp(3.5217)
= $33.84
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.00% per annum.
- GBCI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.