Comerica Inc (CMA)
Comerica Incorporated is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.46% per annum.
- CMA price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $54.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.60 (6.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.62% per annum.
- CMA price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CMA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: March 3, 2025
a = 2.6787
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0880
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0880) – 1
= 42.18%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,047 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6787 + 0.0009 × 1,047 + 2 × 0.0880)
= Exp(3.7464)
= $42.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,047 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6787 + 0.0009 × 1,047 – 2 × 0.0880)
= Exp(3.3944)
= $29.80
March 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6787 + 0.0009 × 1,768 + 2 × 0.0880)
= Exp(4.3604)
= $78.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,768 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6787 + 0.0009 × 1,768 – 2 × 0.0880)
= Exp(4.0085)
= $55.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 36.46% per annum.
- CMA price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $54.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.60 (6.23%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 29, 2025
a = 6.6047
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0533
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0533) – 1
= 23.78%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6047 + -0.0014 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(4.3536)
= $77.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,138)
= Exp(a + b × X1,138 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6047 + -0.0014 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(4.1402)
= $62.82
April 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6047 + -0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(4.1051)
= $60.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6047 + -0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(3.8917)
= $48.99
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 40.62% per annum.
- CMA price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.