Ameris Bancorp (ABCB)
Ameris Bancorp is the banking holding company for Ameris Bank providing a range of banking services to retail and business clients primarily in Georgia, Alabama, Florida and South Carolina. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.36% per annum.
- ABCB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $61.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.36 (45.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.32% per annum.
- ABCB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABCB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2021
End date: November 13, 2023
a = 4.1375
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1055
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1055) – 1
= 52.53%
February 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y386)
= Exp(a + b × X386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 560 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1375 + -0.0003 × 560 + 2 × 0.1055)
= Exp(4.1636)
= $64.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y386)
= Exp(a + b × X386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 560 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1375 + -0.0003 × 560 – 2 × 0.1055)
= Exp(3.7414)
= $42.16
November 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1375 + -0.0003 × 1,568 + 2 × 0.1055)
= Exp(3.8306)
= $46.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1375 + -0.0003 × 1,568 – 2 × 0.1055)
= Exp(3.4084)
= $30.22
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.36% per annum.
- ABCB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $61.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $19.36 (45.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 17, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.0937
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0848
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 46.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0848) – 1
= 40.41%
March 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0937 + 0.0010 × 1,327 + 2 × 0.0848)
= Exp(3.6472)
= $38.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y916)
= Exp(a + b × X916 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0937 + 0.0010 × 1,327 – 2 × 0.0848)
= Exp(3.3078)
= $27.33
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0937 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0848)
= Exp(4.1655)
= $64.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0937 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0848)
= Exp(3.8261)
= $45.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 46.32% per annum.
- ABCB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.