Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC)
Wintrust Financial Corporation is a financial holding company. The company is headquartered in Rosemont, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.82% per annum.
- WTFC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $108.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.94% per annum.
- WTFC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.58 (2.43%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WTFC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2023
End date: May 22, 2024
a = 2.5713
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0574
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0574) – 1
= 25.79%
April 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5713 + 0.0012 × 1,348 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.2764)
= $71.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y929)
= Exp(a + b × X929 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,348 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5713 + 0.0012 × 1,348 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.0470)
= $57.22
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5713 + 0.0012 × 1,762 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.7648)
= $117.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,214)
= Exp(a + b × X1,214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5713 + 0.0012 × 1,762 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.5354)
= $93.26
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.82% per annum.
- WTFC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $108.87 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 1, 2023
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 4.0403
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0308
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0308) – 1
= 13.12%
December 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0403 + 0.0003 × 1,589 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.5929)
= $98.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,096)
= Exp(a + b × X1,096 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,589 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0403 + 0.0003 × 1,589 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.4697)
= $87.33
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0403 + 0.0003 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.6615)
= $105.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0403 + 0.0003 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(4.5383)
= $93.53
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.94% per annum.
- WTFC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.58 (2.43%).