First Bancorp (FBNC)
First Bancorp is First Bank's banking holding company providing banking products and services for individuals and small and medium-sized businesses primarily in North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina. The company is headquartered in Southern Pines, North Carolina.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.31% per annum.
- FBNC price at the close of October 6, 2025 was $51.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 135.98% per annum.
- FBNC price at the close of October 6, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (0.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FBNC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: October 6, 2025
a = 2.6537
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0942
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0942) – 1
= 45.76%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y640)
= Exp(a + b × X640 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 930 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6537 + 0.0007 × 930 + 2 × 0.0942)
= Exp(3.4772)
= $32.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y640)
= Exp(a + b × X640 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 930 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6537 + 0.0007 × 930 – 2 × 0.0942)
= Exp(3.1004)
= $22.21
October 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6537 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0942)
= Exp(4.0884)
= $59.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6537 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0942)
= Exp(3.7116)
= $40.92
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.31% per annum.
- FBNC price at the close of October 6, 2025 was $51.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: October 6, 2025
a = -0.2561
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0407
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 135.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0407) – 1
= 17.66%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2561 + 0.0024 × 1,639 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(3.6806)
= $39.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,127)
= Exp(a + b × X1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,639 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2561 + 0.0024 × 1,639 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(3.5180)
= $33.72
October 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2561 + 0.0024 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.1182)
= $61.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.2561 + 0.0024 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(3.9555)
= $52.22
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 135.98% per annum.
- FBNC price at the close of October 6, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.30 (0.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.