First Bancorp (FBNC)
First Bancorp is the holding company for First Bank, offering a comprehensive range of banking products and services tailored to individuals and small to medium-sized enterprises, predominantly in North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina. Headquartered in Southern Pines, North Carolina, the company is well-positioned in the regional market, leveraging its local expertise and commitment to customer service. With a focus on sustainable growth and community-oriented banking, First Bancorp aims to enhance shareholder value while supporting the financial needs of its clientele.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.17% per annum.
- FBNC price at the close of January 5, 2026 was $51.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.08% per annum.
- FBNC price at the close of January 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FBNC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: January 5, 2026
a = 2.7147
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0901
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 28.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0901) – 1
= 43.37%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y578)
= Exp(a + b × X578 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 839 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7147 + 0.0007 × 839 + 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(3.4653)
= $31.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y578)
= Exp(a + b × X578 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 839 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7147 + 0.0007 × 839 – 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(3.1051)
= $22.31
January 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7147 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(4.1357)
= $62.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7147 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0901)
= Exp(3.7755)
= $43.62
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 28.17% per annum.
- FBNC price at the close of January 5, 2026 was $51.96 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 12, 2025
End date: January 5, 2026
a = 4.5033
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0366
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0366) – 1
= 15.77%
August 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5033 + -0.0003 × 1,679 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(4.0364)
= $56.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,154)
= Exp(a + b × X1,154 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5033 + -0.0003 × 1,679 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(3.8900)
= $48.91
January 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5033 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(3.9894)
= $54.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5033 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(3.8430)
= $46.67
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.08% per annum.
- FBNC price at the close of January 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.