First Commonwealth Financial (FCF)
First Commonwealth Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides a variety of consumer and commercial banking services to individuals and small and medium-sized businesses in the United States. The company is headquartered in Indiana, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.06% per annum.
- FCF price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $18.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.30 (21.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.90% per annum.
- FCF price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.33 (14.29%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FCF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 24, 2021
End date: July 9, 2024
a = 2.5805
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0752
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0752) – 1
= 35.12%
February 24, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y398)
= Exp(a + b × X398 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 579 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5805 + 0.0000 × 579 + 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(2.7300)
= $15.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y398)
= Exp(a + b × X398 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 579 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5805 + 0.0000 × 579 – 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(2.4290)
= $11.35
July 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5805 + 0.0000 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(2.7278)
= $15.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5805 + 0.0000 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0752)
= Exp(2.4268)
= $11.32
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.06% per annum.
- FCF price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $18.60 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.30 (21.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.0050
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0667
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0667) – 1
= 30.55%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0050 + 0.0004 × 1,326 + 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(2.6113)
= $13.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y913)
= Exp(a + b × X913 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0050 + 0.0004 × 1,326 – 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(2.3447)
= $10.43
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0050 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(2.7896)
= $16.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0050 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0667)
= Exp(2.5230)
= $12.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.90% per annum.
- FCF price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.33 (14.29%).