Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)
Simmons First National Corporation is the holding company of Simmons Bank providing banking and financial products and services to individuals and businesses. The company is headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.29% per annum.
- SFNC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $21.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.72 (35.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.36% per annum.
- SFNC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.31 (1.42%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SFNC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 22, 2021
End date: December 12, 2023
a = 3.7470
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0828
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0828) – 1
= 39.27%
February 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y396)
= Exp(a + b × X396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7470 + -0.0006 × 577 + 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(3.5541)
= $34.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y396)
= Exp(a + b × X396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7470 + -0.0006 × 577 – 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(3.2228)
= $25.10
December 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7470 + -0.0006 × 1,600 + 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(2.9184)
= $18.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7470 + -0.0006 × 1,600 – 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(2.5872)
= $13.29
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.29% per annum.
- SFNC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $21.81 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.72 (35.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 17, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.3748
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0775
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0775) – 1
= 36.35%
March 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y917)
= Exp(a + b × X917 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3748 + 0.0003 × 1,330 + 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(2.9220)
= $18.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y917)
= Exp(a + b × X917 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3748 + 0.0003 × 1,330 – 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(2.6119)
= $13.63
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3748 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(3.0682)
= $21.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3748 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0775)
= Exp(2.7582)
= $15.77
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.36% per annum.
- SFNC price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.31 (1.42%).