Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)
Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) is a financial holding company headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, and operates through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Simmons Bank. The corporation offers a comprehensive suite of banking and financial services tailored to meet the needs of both individual consumers and businesses. With a strong focus on community banking, SFNC is dedicated to providing innovative solutions and fostering long-term relationships with its clientele, positioning itself effectively within the competitive financial services landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.96% per annum.
- SFNC price at the close of October 14, 2025 was $19.45 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.22 (5.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.22% per annum.
- SFNC price at the close of October 14, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.90 (10.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SFNC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 17, 2023
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 2.1657
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0853
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0853) – 1
= 40.66%
March 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1657 + 0.0006 × 883 + 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(2.8363)
= $17.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y608)
= Exp(a + b × X608 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1657 + 0.0006 × 883 – 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(2.4951)
= $12.12
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1657 + 0.0006 × 1,630 + 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(3.2593)
= $26.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,630 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1657 + 0.0006 × 1,630 – 2 × 0.0853)
= Exp(2.9181)
= $18.51
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 22.96% per annum.
- SFNC price at the close of October 14, 2025 was $19.45 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.22 (5.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 9, 2024
End date: June 30, 2025
a = 4.7153
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0469
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0469) – 1
= 20.64%
October 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,455 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7153 + -0.0011 × 1,455 + 2 × 0.0469)
= Exp(3.2590)
= $26.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,455 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7153 + -0.0011 × 1,455 – 2 × 0.0469)
= Exp(3.0714)
= $21.57
June 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7153 + -0.0011 × 1,719 + 2 × 0.0469)
= Exp(2.9778)
= $19.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7153 + -0.0011 × 1,719 – 2 × 0.0469)
= Exp(2.7901)
= $16.28
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.22% per annum.
- SFNC price at the close of October 14, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.90 (10.85%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.