International Bancshares Corporation (IBOC)
International Bancshares Corporation, a multi-bank financial holding company, provides commercial and retail banking services. The company is headquartered in Laredo, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.52% per annum.
- IBOC price at the close of October 4, 2024 was $58.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.93% per annum.
- IBOC price at the close of October 4, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.04 (0.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of IBOC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 22, 2023
End date: September 30, 2024
a = 2.6173
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0535
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 35.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0535) – 1
= 23.87%
March 22, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y870)
= Exp(a + b × X870 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,262 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6173 + 0.0008 × 1,262 + 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(3.7751)
= $43.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y870)
= Exp(a + b × X870 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,262 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6173 + 0.0008 × 1,262 – 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(3.5611)
= $35.20
September 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6173 + 0.0008 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(4.2398)
= $69.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6173 + 0.0008 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0535)
= Exp(4.0257)
= $56.02
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 35.52% per annum.
- IBOC price at the close of October 4, 2024 was $58.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 17, 2024
End date: October 3, 2024
a = 14.2153
b = -0.0056
s = 0.0123
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0056) – 1
= -86.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0123) – 1
= 5.05%
September 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2153 + -0.0056 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(4.1645)
= $64.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2153 + -0.0056 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(4.1152)
= $61.26
October 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2153 + -0.0056 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(4.0753)
= $58.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.2153 + -0.0056 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(4.0260)
= $56.04
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.93% per annum.
- IBOC price at the close of October 4, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.04 (0.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.