City Holding Company (CHCO)
City Holding Company is a holding company for City National Bank of West Virginia offering various banking, trust and investment solutions, and other financial solutions in the United States. The company is headquartered in Charleston, West Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.67% per annum.
- CHCO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $122.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.83% per annum.
- CHCO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.98 (5.13%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2020
End date: March 21, 2023
a = 3.8725
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0621
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0621) – 1
= 28.19%
March 9, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y155)
= Exp(a + b × X155 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8725 + 0.0005 × 227 + 2 × 0.0621)
= Exp(4.1084)
= $60.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y155)
= Exp(a + b × X155 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8725 + 0.0005 × 227 – 2 × 0.0621)
= Exp(3.8600)
= $47.47
March 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,334 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8725 + 0.0005 × 1,334 + 2 × 0.0621)
= Exp(4.6530)
= $104.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y919)
= Exp(a + b × X919 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,334 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8725 + 0.0005 × 1,334 – 2 × 0.0621)
= Exp(4.4046)
= $81.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 19.67% per annum.
- CHCO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $122.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 4.0061
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0516
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 13.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0516) – 1
= 22.94%
January 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y365)
= Exp(a + b × X365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0061 + 0.0004 × 530 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(4.2975)
= $73.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y365)
= Exp(a + b × X365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0061 + 0.0004 × 530 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(4.0910)
= $59.80
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0061 + 0.0004 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(4.7522)
= $115.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0061 + 0.0004 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(4.5456)
= $94.22
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.83% per annum.
- CHCO price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.98 (5.13%).