First Hawaiian Inc (FHB)
First Hawaiian, Inc. is a banking holding company for First Hawaiian Bank providing a range of banking services to consumers and business customers in the United States.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.40% per annum.
- FHB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $25.12 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.45 (21.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.32% per annum.
- FHB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FHB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 19, 2021
End date: December 8, 2023
a = 3.5000
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0955
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0955) – 1
= 46.55%
February 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y395)
= Exp(a + b × X395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5000 + -0.0004 × 574 + 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(3.4829)
= $32.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y395)
= Exp(a + b × X395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5000 + -0.0004 × 574 – 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(3.1007)
= $22.21
December 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5000 + -0.0004 × 1,596 + 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(3.1122)
= $22.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,101)
= Exp(a + b × X1,101 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5000 + -0.0004 × 1,596 – 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(2.7300)
= $15.33
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.40% per annum.
- FHB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $25.12 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.45 (21.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.9448
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0661
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 26.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0661) – 1
= 30.25%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9448 + 0.0006 × 1,369 + 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(2.9534)
= $19.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y943)
= Exp(a + b × X943 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,369 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9448 + 0.0006 × 1,369 – 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(2.6890)
= $14.72
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9448 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(3.2459)
= $25.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9448 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0661)
= Exp(2.9816)
= $19.72
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 26.32% per annum.
- FHB price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.