UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF)
UMB Financial Corporation is a diversified financial services holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri, operating through its primary subsidiary, UMB Bank. The company offers a wide range of banking products and services, including commercial and personal banking, asset management, and trust services, primarily catering to corporate, institutional, and individual clients. With a strong emphasis on innovative financial solutions and commitment to customer service, UMB Financial Corporation is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities within the regional banking sector. Its strategic focus on operational excellence and risk management bolsters its resilience in a competitive landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.08% per annum.
- UMBF price at the close of October 27, 2025 was $112.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $26.95 (19.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.75% per annum.
- UMBF price at the close of October 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UMBF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 2.9465
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0691
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0691) – 1
= 31.83%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y595)
= Exp(a + b × X595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 866 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9465 + 0.0012 × 866 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(4.0949)
= $60.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y595)
= Exp(a + b × X595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 866 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9465 + 0.0012 × 866 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(3.8186)
= $45.54
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9465 + 0.0012 × 1,576 + 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(4.9232)
= $137.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9465 + 0.0012 × 1,576 – 2 × 0.0691)
= Exp(4.6468)
= $104.25
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.08% per annum.
- UMBF price at the close of October 27, 2025 was $112.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $26.95 (19.34%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2024
End date: October 27, 2025
a = 4.4831
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0828
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0828) – 1
= 39.24%
August 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y956)
= Exp(a + b × X956 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,391 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4831 + 0.0001 × 1,391 + 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(4.8254)
= $124.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y956)
= Exp(a + b × X956 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,391 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4831 + 0.0001 × 1,391 – 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(4.4943)
= $89.50
October 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4831 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(4.8805)
= $131.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4831 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(4.5494)
= $94.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.75% per annum.
- UMBF price at the close of October 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.