OFG Bancorp (OFG)
OFG Bancorp, a financial holding company, offers a range of banking and financial services. The company is headquartered in San Juan, Puerto Rico.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.46% per annum.
- OFG price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $37.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.86% per annum.
- OFG price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.41 (1.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OFG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 17, 2023
End date: March 13, 2024
a = 1.2188
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0618
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 65.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0618) – 1
= 28.05%
March 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,397 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2188 + 0.0014 × 1,397 + 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(3.2697)
= $26.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y964)
= Exp(a + b × X964 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,397 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2188 + 0.0014 × 1,397 – 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(3.0224)
= $20.54
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2188 + 0.0014 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(3.7691)
= $43.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2188 + 0.0014 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0618)
= Exp(3.5218)
= $33.85
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.46% per annum.
- OFG price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $37.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 4, 2023
End date: May 1, 2024
a = 3.8169
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0270
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0270) – 1
= 11.40%
December 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8169 + -0.0001 × 1,659 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(3.6445)
= $38.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,659 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8169 + -0.0001 × 1,659 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(3.5366)
= $34.35
May 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8169 + -0.0001 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(3.6242)
= $37.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8169 + -0.0001 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(3.5162)
= $33.66
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 4.86% per annum.
- OFG price at the close of May 17, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.41 (1.09%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.