Bank Ozk (OZK)
Bank OZK offers a variety of retail and commercial banking services. The company is headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.25% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $42.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.56 (1.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.40% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OZK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 3.6432
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0831
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0831) – 1
= 39.44%
February 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 280 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6432 + 0.0000 × 280 + 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(3.7998)
= $44.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 280 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6432 + 0.0000 × 280 – 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(3.4673)
= $32.05
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y903)
= Exp(a + b × X903 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6432 + 0.0000 × 1,309 + 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(3.7643)
= $43.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y903)
= Exp(a + b × X903 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6432 + 0.0000 × 1,309 – 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(3.4319)
= $30.93
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.25% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was $42.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.56 (1.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 3.3666
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0907
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 9.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0907) – 1
= 43.72%
April 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y485)
= Exp(a + b × X485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3666 + 0.0002 × 701 + 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(3.7204)
= $41.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y485)
= Exp(a + b × X485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3666 + 0.0002 × 701 – 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(3.3577)
= $28.72
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3666 + 0.0002 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(3.9903)
= $54.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3666 + 0.0002 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(3.6276)
= $37.62
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 9.40% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of April 29, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.