Bank Ozk (OZK)
Bank OZK offers a variety of retail and commercial banking services. The company is headquartered in Little Rock, Arkansas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.37% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $48.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.01 (9.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.52% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OZK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 9, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 3.6990
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0828
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0828) – 1
= 39.25%
February 9, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y435)
= Exp(a + b × X435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 631 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6990 + 0.0000 × 631 + 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(3.8406)
= $46.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y435)
= Exp(a + b × X435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 631 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6990 + 0.0000 × 631 – 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(3.5095)
= $33.43
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6990 + 0.0000 × 1,655 + 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(3.8017)
= $44.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6990 + 0.0000 × 1,655 – 2 × 0.0828)
= Exp(3.4706)
= $32.16
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.37% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $48.50 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.01 (9.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 9, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 2.4086
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0780
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0780) – 1
= 36.63%
March 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y958)
= Exp(a + b × X958 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,389 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4086 + 0.0008 × 1,389 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(3.6649)
= $39.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y958)
= Exp(a + b × X958 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,389 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4086 + 0.0008 × 1,389 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(3.3528)
= $28.58
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4086 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.0095)
= $55.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4086 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(3.6973)
= $40.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.52% per annum.
- OZK price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.