Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Fifth Third Bank is a bank headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, at Fifth Third Center. It is the principal subsidiary of Fifth Third Bancorp, a diversified bank holding company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.34% per annum.
- FITB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $42.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.63 (47.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.69% per annum.
- FITB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FITB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 3.9571
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1150
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1150) – 1
= 58.41%
March 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y400)
= Exp(a + b × X400 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9571 + -0.0005 × 581 + 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(3.9220)
= $50.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y400)
= Exp(a + b × X400 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9571 + -0.0005 × 581 – 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(3.4620)
= $31.88
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9571 + -0.0005 × 1,585 + 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(3.4639)
= $31.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9571 + -0.0005 × 1,585 – 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(3.0038)
= $20.16
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.34% per annum.
- FITB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $42.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.63 (47.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 1.6108
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0818
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0818) – 1
= 38.71%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6108 + 0.0011 × 1,323 + 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.2607)
= $26.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6108 + 0.0011 × 1,323 – 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(2.9334)
= $18.79
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6108 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.8235)
= $45.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6108 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.4963)
= $32.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.69% per annum.
- FITB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.