Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)
Fifth Third Bank is a bank headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, at Fifth Third Center. It is the principal subsidiary of Fifth Third Bancorp, a diversified bank holding company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.60% per annum.
- FITB price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $38.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.90 (30.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.87% per annum.
- FITB price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FITB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 5, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023
a = 4.0096
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1138
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1138) – 1
= 57.66%
March 5, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y452)
= Exp(a + b × X452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0096 + -0.0005 × 655 + 2 × 0.1138)
= Exp(3.9329)
= $51.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y452)
= Exp(a + b × X452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0096 + -0.0005 × 655 – 2 × 0.1138)
= Exp(3.4776)
= $32.38
November 30, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0096 + -0.0005 × 1,655 + 2 × 0.1138)
= Exp(3.4683)
= $32.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,142)
= Exp(a + b × X1,142 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,655 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0096 + -0.0005 × 1,655 – 2 × 0.1138)
= Exp(3.0130)
= $20.35
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.60% per annum.
- FITB price at the close of May 17, 2024 was $38.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.90 (30.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 25, 2023
End date: May 17, 2024
a = 1.2126
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0816
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0816) – 1
= 38.59%
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y990)
= Exp(a + b × X990 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2126 + 0.0013 × 1,436 + 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(3.2707)
= $26.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y990)
= Exp(a + b × X990 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2126 + 0.0013 × 1,436 – 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(2.9444)
= $19.00
May 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2126 + 0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(3.7827)
= $43.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2126 + 0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0816)
= Exp(3.4563)
= $31.70
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.87% per annum.
- FITB price at the close of May 17, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.