Stock Price Trends

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)

Fifth Third Bank is a bank headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, at Fifth Third Center. It is the principal subsidiary of Fifth Third Bancorp, a diversified bank holding company.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.34% per annum.
  • FITB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $42.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.63 (47.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.69% per annum.
  • FITB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FITB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 1, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023

a = 3.9571

b = -0.0005

s = 0.1150

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1150) – 1
= 58.41%

March 1, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y400)
= Exp(a + b × X400 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 581 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9571 + -0.0005 × 581 + 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(3.9220)
= $50.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y400)
= Exp(a + b × X400 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 581 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9571 + -0.0005 × 581 – 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(3.4620)
= $31.88

November 30, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9571 + -0.0005 × 1,585 + 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(3.4639)
= $31.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,094)
= Exp(a + b × X1,094 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,585 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9571 + -0.0005 × 1,585 – 2 × 0.1150)
= Exp(3.0038)
= $20.16

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.34% per annum.
  • FITB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $42.27 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.63 (47.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024

a = 1.6108

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0818

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 50.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0818) – 1
= 38.71%

March 13, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6108 + 0.0011 × 1,323 + 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.2607)
= $26.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y912)
= Exp(a + b × X912 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6108 + 0.0011 × 1,323 – 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(2.9334)
= $18.79

July 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6108 + 0.0011 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.8235)
= $45.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6108 + 0.0011 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0818)
= Exp(3.4963)
= $32.99

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 50.69% per annum.
  • FITB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.