Commerce Bancshares Inc (CBSH)
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) is a diversified financial services holding company headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri, primarily engaged in providing a wide range of banking and financial services through its flagship subsidiary, Commerce Bank. The company offers retail and mortgage banking, investment services, as well as corporate and asset management solutions tailored for individuals and businesses across the United States. Commerce Bancshares is known for its strong financial performance, sound risk management practices, and commitment to customer service, positioning it as a reputable player in the regional banking sector.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.81% per annum.
- CBSH price at the close of November 11, 2025 was $54.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.58 (15.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.48% per annum.
- CBSH price at the close of November 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CBSH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 2, 2023
End date: July 23, 2025
a = 3.1394
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0651
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0651) – 1
= 29.72%
May 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y619)
= Exp(a + b × X619 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 901 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1394 + 0.0006 × 901 + 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(3.8363)
= $46.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y619)
= Exp(a + b × X619 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 901 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1394 + 0.0006 × 901 – 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(3.5761)
= $35.73
July 23, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1394 + 0.0006 × 1,714 + 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(4.3478)
= $77.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1394 + 0.0006 × 1,714 – 2 × 0.0651)
= Exp(4.0876)
= $59.59
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.81% per annum.
- CBSH price at the close of November 11, 2025 was $54.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.58 (15.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: November 11, 2025
a = 4.7726
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0443
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0443) – 1
= 19.38%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,455 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7726 + -0.0004 × 1,455 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.2842)
= $72.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,455 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7726 + -0.0004 × 1,455 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.1071)
= $60.77
November 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7726 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(4.1374)
= $62.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7726 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0443)
= Exp(3.9603)
= $52.47
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.48% per annum.
- CBSH price at the close of November 11, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.