First Financial Bankshares Inc (FFIN)
First Financial Bankshares, Inc., offers commercial banking products and services in Texas. The company is headquartered in Abilene, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.90% per annum.
- FFIN price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $35.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.98% per annum.
- FFIN price at the close of September 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FFIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 14, 2023
End date: September 17, 2025
a = 2.7913
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0886
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 18.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0886) – 1
= 42.52%
April 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y646)
= Exp(a + b × X646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 938 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7913 + 0.0005 × 938 + 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(3.4134)
= $30.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y646)
= Exp(a + b × X646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 938 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7913 + 0.0005 × 938 – 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(3.0591)
= $21.31
September 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7913 + 0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(3.8342)
= $46.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7913 + 0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0886)
= Exp(3.4798)
= $32.45
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 18.90% per annum.
- FFIN price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $35.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 19, 2024
End date: September 17, 2025
a = 3.7167
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0543
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0543) – 1
= 24.25%
July 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,400 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7167 + -0.0001 × 1,400 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.7093)
= $40.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,400 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7167 + -0.0001 × 1,400 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.4922)
= $32.86
September 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7167 + -0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.6742)
= $39.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7167 + -0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(3.4570)
= $31.72
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 2.98% per annum.
- FFIN price at the close of September 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.