Berkshire Hills Bancorp Inc (BHLB)
Berkshire Hills Bancorp, Inc. is a banking holding company for Berkshire Bank offering a variety of banking products and services. The company is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.53% per annum.
- BHLB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $28.04 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.04 (7.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.60% per annum.
- BHLB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.45 (5.46%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BHLB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 3.4488
b = -0.0002
s = 0.1002
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1002) – 1
= 49.30%
May 13, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y452)
= Exp(a + b × X452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 654 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4488 + -0.0002 × 654 + 2 × 0.1002)
= Exp(3.5089)
= $33.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y452)
= Exp(a + b × X452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 654 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4488 + -0.0002 × 654 – 2 × 0.1002)
= Exp(3.1081)
= $22.38
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4488 + -0.0002 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.1002)
= Exp(3.2614)
= $26.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4488 + -0.0002 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.1002)
= Exp(2.8606)
= $17.47
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 7.53% per annum.
- BHLB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $28.04 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.04 (7.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.5503
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0686
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0686) – 1
= 31.59%
April 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,362 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5503 + 0.0003 × 1,362 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.1303)
= $22.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y940)
= Exp(a + b × X940 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,362 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5503 + 0.0003 × 1,362 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(2.8558)
= $17.39
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5503 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.2805)
= $26.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5503 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(3.0060)
= $20.21
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.60% per annum.
- BHLB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.45 (5.46%).