Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)
Hilltop Holdings Inc. is a diversified financial services company based in Dallas, Texas, offering a wide range of consumer and commercial banking products alongside other financial services. With a strategic focus on organic growth and acquisitions, Hilltop operates multiple subsidiaries, including its banking division, which emphasizes personalized client service and community engagement. The firm aims to enhance its market position through innovative financial solutions and a commitment to meeting the evolving needs of its customers. As a solid player in the financial sector, Hilltop Holdings is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities within the dynamic banking landscape.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.07% per annum.
- HTH price at the close of January 20, 2026 was $35.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.41% per annum.
- HTH price at the close of January 20, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HTH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 31, 2022
End date: January 20, 2026
a = 3.1965
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0611
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0611) – 1
= 27.69%
March 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1965 + 0.0002 × 434 + 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(3.3888)
= $29.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1965 + 0.0002 × 434 – 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(3.1444)
= $23.21
January 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1965 + 0.0002 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(3.6136)
= $37.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1965 + 0.0002 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0611)
= Exp(3.3691)
= $29.05
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.07% per annum.
- HTH price at the close of January 20, 2026 was $35.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: January 20, 2026
a = 2.1697
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0347
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.41%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0347) – 1
= 14.87%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,533 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1697 + 0.0008 × 1,533 + 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(3.4181)
= $30.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,533 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1697 + 0.0008 × 1,533 – 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(3.2795)
= $26.56
January 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1697 + 0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(3.6427)
= $38.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1697 + 0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0347)
= Exp(3.5041)
= $33.25
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.41% per annum.
- HTH price at the close of January 20, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.