New York Community Bancorp Inc (NYCB)
New York Community Bancorp, Inc. is the banking holding company for New York Community Bank offering banking products and services in the New York metropolitan area, New Jersey, Ohio, Florida and Arizona. The company is headquartered in Westbury, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 83.58% per annum.
- NYCB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $11.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.96% per annum.
- NYCB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NYCB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 17, 2023
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 11.0147
b = -0.0050
s = 0.2263
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0050) – 1
= -83.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2263) – 1
= 147.25%
July 17, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0147 + -0.0050 × 1,449 + 2 × 0.2263)
= Exp(4.2945)
= $73.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0147 + -0.0050 × 1,449 – 2 × 0.2263)
= Exp(3.3893)
= $29.65
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0147 + -0.0050 × 1,808 + 2 × 0.2263)
= Exp(2.5174)
= $12.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,808 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.0147 + -0.0050 × 1,808 – 2 × 0.2263)
= Exp(1.6122)
= $5.01
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 83.58% per annum.
- NYCB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $11.22 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 1.7972
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0844
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0844) – 1
= 40.17%
March 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7972 + 0.0003 × 1,677 + 2 × 0.0844)
= Exp(2.4440)
= $11.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,677 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7972 + 0.0003 × 1,677 – 2 × 0.0844)
= Exp(2.1064)
= $8.22
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7972 + 0.0003 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0844)
= Exp(2.4859)
= $12.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.7972 + 0.0003 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0844)
= Exp(2.1483)
= $8.57
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.96% per annum.
- NYCB price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.