# New York Community Bancorp Inc (NYCB)

New York Community Bancorp, Inc. is the banking holding company for New York Community Bank offering banking products and services in the New York metropolitan area, New Jersey, Ohio, Florida and Arizona. The company is headquartered in Westbury, New York.

## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

#### Key facts

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.38% per annum.
• NYCB price at the close of May 24, 2024 was \$3.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by \$1.52 (31.31%).
• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 97.78% per annum.
• NYCB price at the close of May 24, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by \$0.47 (16.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NYCB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: July 26, 2023
End date: November 28, 2023

a = 7.2324

b = -0.0031

s = 0.0290

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.38%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0290) – 1
= 12.31%

#### July 26, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2324 + -0.0031 × 1,520 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(2.6248)
= \$13.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2324 + -0.0031 × 1,520 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(2.5086)
= \$12.29

#### November 28, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2324 + -0.0031 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(2.2411)
= \$9.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2324 + -0.0031 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0290)
= Exp(2.1249)
= \$8.37

#### Description

• The primary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.38% per annum.
• NYCB price at the close of May 24, 2024 was \$3.33 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by \$1.52 (31.31%).

### Secondary Trend

Start date: November 24, 2023
End date: April 30, 2024

a = 19.6744

b = -0.0104

s = 0.1989

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0104) – 1
= -97.78%

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1989) – 1
= 121.55%

#### November 24, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 + 2 × s)
= Exp(19.6744 + -0.0104 × 1,641 + 2 × 0.1989)
= Exp(2.9497)
= \$19.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 – 2 × s)
= Exp(19.6744 + -0.0104 × 1,641 – 2 × 0.1989)
= Exp(2.1542)
= \$8.62

#### April 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(19.6744 + -0.0104 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.1989)
= Exp(1.3011)
= \$3.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(19.6744 + -0.0104 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.1989)
= Exp(0.5057)
= \$1.66

#### Description

• The secondary trend is decreasing.
• The decline rate of the secondary trend is 97.78% per annum.
• NYCB price at the close of May 24, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by \$0.47 (16.45%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.