United Community Banks Inc (UCBI)
United Community Banks, Inc. is a holding company of United Community Bank, a state-licensed bank that offers a variety of banking products and services. The company is headquartered in Blairsville, Georgia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.36% per annum.
- UCBI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $31.18 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.01 (6.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.38% per annum.
- UCBI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.04 (0.14%).
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UCBI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 30, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 3.7818
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0974
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0974) – 1
= 47.65%
September 30, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7818 + -0.0003 × 797 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.7132)
= $40.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y550)
= Exp(a + b × X550 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7818 + -0.0003 × 797 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.3235)
= $27.76
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7818 + -0.0003 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(3.3781)
= $29.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7818 + -0.0003 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0974)
= Exp(2.9884)
= $19.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.36% per annum.
- UCBI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $31.18 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.01 (6.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 21, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 2.8807
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0776
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0776) – 1
= 36.37%
April 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y941)
= Exp(a + b × X941 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8807 + 0.0002 × 1,365 + 2 × 0.0776)
= Exp(3.3368)
= $28.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y941)
= Exp(a + b × X941 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8807 + 0.0002 × 1,365 – 2 × 0.0776)
= Exp(3.0266)
= $20.63
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8807 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0776)
= Exp(3.4384)
= $31.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8807 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0776)
= Exp(3.1282)
= $22.83
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.38% per annum.
- UCBI price at the close of July 25, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.04 (0.14%).